On 3 May, millions of Londoners will take to the polls to vote in the London Mayoral elections. For many people, this election campaign has turned into a popularity contest between two great political rivals; present incumbent Boris Johnson and the man he deposed, Ken Livingstone.

Although, there are several candidates all vying for the top job, in reality it’s a two horse race and according to YouGov, Boris is the favourite with a 6 point lead.

As a digital marketer, I’m a big proponent of the hypothesis that online conversation offers insight into offline behaviour, so I thought it would be interesting to look at the London Mayoral contest and see if it is at all possible to accurately predict the outcome based on social data analysed from online conversations.

To do this we need to begin by understanding the volume of conversation about the Mayoral race, and thanks to social media monitoring tools this is a straightforward enough exercise. Indeed, over the last 30 days UK online conversation about the three main candidates has, as you would expect increased dramatically. Interestingly, Ken Livingstone is trailing Boris Johnson in terms share of voice, whilst the other main candidate, Brian Paddick is struggling to be heard. 

Encouragingly for Ken, the volume of people searching for him closely matches the number of searches for Boris, whilst Brian is once more trailing in third. It is more difficult to make firm conclusions about search data, for instance are people searching because they want more infomation to support or attack a candidates policies?

Nonetheless, I’m working on the basis that with only a short period until election day, having people search for you is most likely a sign of positive intent.

Whilst, online mentions and search data are a useful indication of communications activity and subsequent awareness, they do not shed any light on voting behaviour and it is sentiment which we should focus on.

Using a range of tools I found 34.6% of conversations around Boris are positive and there is a similar figure (33.8%) in relation to Ken, but an impressive 56.8% of mentions of Brian Paddick are considered positive. This high proportion of positive sentiment for policeman Paddick is most likely a reflection that the Johnson and Livingstone camps have concentrated on attacking each other, rather than Paddick.

Before we go any further, I recognise no social media monitoring vendor has perfected sentiment analysis, but many are very good at it, so I’m taking these figures as indicators not facts.

Based on the level of positive online conversation for each candidate in relation to share of voice, as well as taking into consideration that other candidates usually receive 10-15% of the vote, I’ve created the above chart and it perhaps offers the best indication of how people intend to vote – and Boris emerges with an 11 point lead.

I appreciate this methodology could be enhanced and that the online population is not reflective statistically of the electorate, as well as there being many more unknown factors, so I’m going to give myself a margin of error of  5% and that’s why as things stand, I’m backing Boris to remain in City Hall with a winning margin of between 8-13 points. If something dramatic happens before 3 May I may revise this prediction, otherwise I look forward to returning to this post when the votes have been counted.

Who are you backing to win the leadership race for London? Do you agree that online conversation offers insight into offline behaviour? How do you think big data can be leveraged to guide our decision-making process?

The nitty gritty
PR jobs are highly sought after and people often look at it as a glamorous career choice, which is can be if you end up working in entertainment or fashion. But as with anything, it’s all about what company you work for.

“If I was down to my last dollar, I’d spend it on public relations.” – Bill Gates

In terms of your work tasks, you’re likely to do much of the following…

• Coming up with PR strategies
• Building relationships with the media
• Writing press releases and calling around whenever you’re trying to generate publicity
• Writing reports on media coverage data
• Overseeing content production (adverts, videos, social media and online PR stunts)
• Arranging press conferences and events
• Overseeing market research
• Bringing in new business opportunities
• Managing client relationships
• Overseeing social media PR strategies

However, this is by no means an exhaustive list.

Money, money, money
Actually, the salaries for PR jobs aren’t too shabby, especially for anyone with a solid understanding of social media. Of course, you won’t be in the same bracket as financiers but a £16,000 – £24,000 starting salary isn’t to be sniffed at.

The good points…
PR jobs offer a huge amount of career options; after all, most companies need some kind of PR to succeed. You can work anywhere from top fashion houses through to small charities trying to raise awareness and you can use your own personal interests to choose where you end up. Then there are the endless parties and events!

…and the bad
PR jobs are tough. You often have to work long hours and schmooze clients and the press on a regular basis – you can forget having your free time completely to yourself. It’s also a difficult, targets-driven job where clients have high expectations of how good a job you need to do for them.

Is there study involved?
There aren’t any set qualifications needed in order to become a PR; however, realistically most applicants have a degree, although the subject isn’t important. What IS important is work experience. If you can demonstrate experience of media, marketing, communications or even direct PR then you’ll be in with a much better chance of getting a great job. Time to start volunteering or apprenticeships!

OK, I’m interested… But is it really the career for me?
The most important attribute a PR needs is the ability to build relationships with people – particularly cynical journalists. The media is a powerhouse for PR opportunities but getting your product or brand into the pages of the best newspapers and magazine or on the trendiest websites can be difficult to say the least – unless you’re chummy with the editor!

Disclosure: this is a sponsored post.

We all know Google operates as a shop window for many businesses and the influence reviews and WOM can have on purchasing decisions, but how can you be sure the review, either good or bad (there is evidence to suggest bad reviews can lead to increased purchases) is genuine?

It’s undoubtedly a contentious issue, but it seems every week there’s another story which alleges the ‘gaming’ of TripAdvisor, Yelp or Google Places and co in what Cornell University have termed ‘deceptive opinion spam’.

Recent news that the ASA forced TripAdvisor to stop claiming its reviews are ‘trusted’, coupled with claims that an Irish hotel chain urged its staff to write positive reviews only add weight to the argument that urgent reform is needed.

We are now reaching a point where review websites need to up their game if we are to break  a disingenuous cycle of fake reviews that not only damage the reputation of businesses, but that of review websites.

There has been calls by the judiciary to criminalise ‘untrue’ web claims, but the reality is online legislation and enforcement have been hampered by a lack of political will and appropriate resource. It is against this backdrop of increasing mistrust and legislative apathy that review websites must now step up to the plate and raise their levels of verification.

Although not a definitive answer to the question of verifying online authenticity, enhanced safeguards, verification and transparency will improve the situation.

What could this look like?

In practical terms it could mean publishing IP addresses, requiring people to post their full name and link to their social media profiles. Perhaps reviews sites could move to a situation where they offer a trust rating like eBay does for its customers? For instance, people who are willing to publish their name, list their various social media profiles, have been a member of a review site for several months would have a higher trust rating than somebody hiding behind a username, who has just joined the review site and posted a negative review.

All of this would help improve the verification of authentic online reviews.

Obviously, such measures would mean people open their reviews up to increased scrutiny, but I see this as a positive, progressive step. At the moment it is simply too easy for somebody to abuse the system.

Given this year’s Edelman Trust Barometer finding that trust in ‘people like me’ has increased, review sites should be in a for a great 12 months ahead, but if the validity of reviews continues to be questioned, then their license to operate will be fatally undermined.

Review websites are a fantastic, informative and useful source of information, but in the absence of greater levels of verification, the cracks in trust which have emerged may become a fracture and that really could signal the beginning of the end of the of the game.

The event will take place at the beautiful Shoreditch Town Hall and 100% of the proceeds will go towards supporting Bright One, the volunteer-run agency for the third sector which Ben Matthews founded and runs in his spare time with a trusty band of dedicated volunteers.

I interviewed Ben for Social Web Thing back in 2010, when he had just been named Young PR Professional of the Year and I’ve followed the rise of Bright One ever since; it’s clear they do some fantastic work and provide much needed support to charities across the UK.

The PR Prom promises to be a fantastic night and for just £25, you will get:

• A ‘Brite Fizz’ signature cocktail upon arrival, courtesy of Eventbrite
• 3 free drinks from the bar
• Live entertainment from the amazing She Makes War
• DJ set from Matt Brawn
• A prom photo as a keepsake of the night
• Food provided by Eat.St:
• Mini wraps, mini rolls and mini portion of ribs from The Rib Man
• Stews from around the world from Stewed and Baked
• Imperial BBQ Pho Rolls, Op La Di Beef Pho Rolls and Fish Q Pho Rolls from Banhmi11 
• And more to come on the night…

Tickets are available from: http://prprom.eventbrite.com

If you’re looking to get involved in Bright One, drop Ben or one of the team a line by filling in this online from or check their blog and Facebook page for more information and latest news.

The past 12 months will undoubtedly be remembered for the Fukushima disaster, occupy Wall Street movement, Euro zone crisis and phone-hacking scandal, all of which have impacted upon trust in government, business, NGOs and media. These major incidents have resulted in a historic fall in the trust of government and business, creating a leadership vacuum that has being ably filled by the quality, not tabloid media, whilst employees, have replaced CEOs as a credible spokesman.

In addition, this years Trust Barometer has its largest ever sample, having surveyed 30,000 people from both the general public and opinion forming elite.

Whilst there is a lot of data to digest, the following points are what I think will have the biggest impact on my role in 2012.

All in all, 2011 has been a fantastic year, both personally and for this blog – amongst the many highlights are moving to a new country, gaining promotion and once again being nominated for the CRAPPs.

For something which started as nothing more than a hobby, I find it extraordinary and humbling to see how the Social Web Thing has evolved over the past 27 months. It’s been quite a journey and the growth has been very pleasing; with the blog exceeding 40,000 Pageviews in 2011.

Another source of much pride has been continuing to write for the Edelman Digital blog, as well as penning posts for The Next Web and Clare Siobhán Callery’s excellent blog, both on a topic close to my heart; employability.

Throughout 2011 I’ve learnt so much, from too many people to name, but I’ll be forever grateful to everyone who has made it such a wonderful year. I’m not quite sure what 2012 will hold for me, but I’m always optimistic and I’m sure it will be an exciting, memorable and enjoyable 12 months.

At this time of year, it’s almost customary to make some predictions about what trends we can expect to see in the year ahead, so I’ll put my head on the block and make some predictions – I’d be interested to hear yours too (here’s my 2011 predictions).

2012 will…

• Be the year of Social Business
• Be remembered for gamification coming to the fore
• See us have more control over our online data
• See the emergence and use of near-field communication (NFC) technology

2012 will not…

• See us any closer to the Rusbridger Cross
• See the death of SEO

Again, I’d like to thank you all for reading Social Web Thing and for your continued support over the past year, it’s much appreciated.

Wishing you and your families a Merry Christmas and great New Year,

Ben

The team is looking for someone with a qualification in Media, PR, Marketing or a related discipline, but are more than happy to talk to bright people with other qualifications too. The ideal candidate will have a solid grasp of digital, social media and Web 2.0 tools, as well as superior research (qualitative and quantitative), writing and editing skills.

They need somebody who can work effectively with team members and clients, and who is highly organised, detail-oriented and a self-starter with the ability to efficiently manage multiple deadlines. The candidate will also have experience in using tools such as MS Word, Powerpoint and Excel, as well as an understanding of other digital tools.

Also, in an era where unpaid internships are unfortunately all too common, I’m proud to say that my employer has publicly committed to pay the minimum wage to interns and subsequently, this internship pays £15k per year.

 The main responsibilities are:

• Assist with in basic community management and updating to Facebook pages and Twitter channels
• Involvement in every aspect of creating and implementing innovative content plans and campaigns
• Prepare and/or review all client reports, including but not limited to activity reports, monthly reports and status reports, incorporating audience and sentiment analysis
• Assist with content plan
• Develop understanding of client’s internal organisation, business and sector
• Work with client on day-to-day basis
• Manage work process, supporting senior account team members as appropriate
• Keep account team abreast of timelines and deadlines
• Analyse key word research
• Exhibit effective project management working closely with account teams
• Analyse market research including using online services

I know and have worked with the team during my time at Edelman and can vouch that it’s a fun, exciting, challenging and fast-paced environment; a great way to cut your teeth in the world of digital and work with some fantastic clients.

If you’re interested in the internship, drop Eamonn Carey an email at Eamonn.Carey@edelman.com

Despite growth stalling in the wider economy, it’s great to see the PR industry in rude health (judging by the number of grad schemes that is). The list is broadly the same size as previous years and as we’ve come to expect, it is predominantly made up of the larger, international agencies with London offices.

The innovative event is organised by leading job noticeboard Total Jobs and takes place from 7-10 November 2011. Interestingly, the event is a virtual affair, so students can hear about jobs, training opportunities and graduate training schemes all from the comfort of their home or indeed, anywhere with a wireless connection.

There’s some blue-chip exhibitors and a packed schedule of seminars  in what sounds like a fantastic event. The fair is free to register and gives graduates the chance to chat directly with employers and ask questions about graduate schemes.

For more information on this virtual recruitment event, check out the Gradu8 Recruitment fair website.

Disclosure: this is a sponsored post; however it contains my honest opinion.